Can Solar Be Competitive?
Photo credit: diegosaurius Rex
By now BP CEO Tony Hayward’s comments are famous throughout the solar industry, across newsreels, and around the web. In case you haven’t been around any of those outlets in the last week or so, Hayward went public saying that he thought it likely that solar power will never be competitive with conventional energy; not without a significant, industry-changing, technological breakthrough.
What made Hayward’s comments so striking — it’s not as if solar enthusiasts don’t know doubters — was that this was coming from inside. BP Solar is a leader in the solar industry, although ironically a leader in the oil and gas industry as well.
Okay, so how do we in the solar realm handle such a depressing line? It is certainly a bit sobering and, at present (commercialized) technology levels I would have to agree with Mr. Hayward. Solar power must learn to survive, even thrive, without the aid of government incentives and bank loans. The only way to do this, and the goal of every researcher, scientist, and investor in the solar industry, is to develop and produce cheap yet highly efficient solar products.
The question for me then becomes not, Can we get competitive, but How do we get there? What technology can do it?
True many of today’s innovations and new products are advancing the solar cause only slightly. For instance solar panels that can absorb a wider spectrum of light or those that are uniquely shaped to catch reflected light from all angles. These may improve performance, which can make a serious difference over the life of a solar panel, but none so far can marry all the necessary solar solutions. We need panels that can absorb a lot of light and process a lot of light into electricity at a much-discounted rate.
I for one believe that we still have a chance. Check that; more than a chance, we have probability on our side. 20 years ago who but the innovators involved could have seen today’s cell phones? I can only (and love to) imagine the solar panels — if they’re panels at all — of the future, but I see no reason to think that these panels will never exist.
Posted on May 22nd in Solar Politics by Dan.
May 24th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
I am a little skeptical when the head of British Petroleum pronounces solar to be non-competitive. I know they make photovoltiac panels as well, but the last word in BP is petroleum.
There are many reasons to see the price of solar thermal and electric coming down in the near future, increased R&D money from the stimulus, increased manufacturing capacity for raw silicon, increased manufacturing capacity for finished panels, etc. It may be a while before solar can stand on it’s own against oil, coal and natural gas, true enough.
The federal tax incentives for solar installations are not due to expire before 2016. Surely by then, oil and gas prices will have gone up significantly while the prices of solar products will have come down.
May 26th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
I don’t necessarily disagree with Hayward, because I do think a major technological breakthrough in solar is needed.
However, let’s keep in mind that the U.S. oil and gas industry has received over $160 Billion dollars in federal tax breaks and subsidies since 1950 (source: http://www.taxpayer.net/search_by_category.php?action=view&proj_id=1553&category=Energy&type=Project#). That’s one major reason why solar isn’t competitive with oil and gas.
But what if solar were to be subsidized to the same level? If that were the case, I expect that solar breakthrough Hayward talks about would come about much sooner.
May 26th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
To make solar thrive into mainstream is all about educating the people! Most have no idea how to use solar, or how it works. We need to start spreading the word and talk in the normal since when talking about solar and not the scientific way. Price isn’t as big of a factor, it’s just about getting people educated.