Low Expectations for Copenhagen Climate Change Agreement

The Copenhagen Climate Treaty talks are coming to a close and the outlook is still much the same as it had been leading up to the talks.  The Copenhagen treaty isn’t shaping up to be much stronger than the Kyoto Agreement, especially if the US and China hold out on giving their full support.  On top of that, even if an agreement is reached, it has to then be implemented, which is no small task.

Less-developed nations have called for monetary aid in the changeover to a greener economy, a major issue in finalizing the treaty.  The European Union pledged $10.2 billion over the next 10years to these countries, but the US and Japan have yet to commit on a sum.

But it may not be so simple as old-fashioned apathy.  The US has a history of difficult passages for certain types of bills, specifically climate-related issues. This makes ratification of a climate treaty very difficult even in the current political stronghold.  The US did not ratify the Kyoto Agreement of 1998 during a Republican majority.  There is also political pressure on President Obama to be wary and wise in the talks, particularly from the media spectacle that is Sarah Palin.  Things are looking up, though.  A climate bill has been delayed but may pass in the first half of 2010.  Also, the US Environmental Protection Agency recently stated that greenhouse gas pollution is harmful to humanity. Yes, it’s ridiculous that it even needed to be said, but climate change naysayers are actually beginning to confuse the masses.

How are Developing Nations Holding Up?

Things are not any easier for fast-growing developing nations, either.  South Africa is faced with an energy crisis and is committed to building coal-fired power plants to close the deficit.  Activists are not happy that renewable energy has taken such a backseat, considering the opportunities to employ it.  In India, there have been failed attempts despite massive government spending, regulations and efforts to clean up its rivers.  This points toward difficulty accomplishing the goal of cleaning the air due to many of the reasons creating the difficulties with the rivers (see AP article for further information on India’s situation).

Nations such as Tuvalu have the most to lose and sadly, they’ll probably lose it anyway.  Tuvalu is an island nation endangered by rising seas.  Even the most stringent Copenhagen terms will only do so much.  Even with Climategate, it’s safe to say that icecaps are melting and seas are rising.  The bright side of Copenhagen is the attendance. Over 190 nations attended the talks, meaning that near-global input was contributed.

Ultimately, this is not an easy thing for any nation to commit to, given the current trend of heavy investments in non-renewables.  For instance, if you just bought a new Ford Expedition and were asked to walk away from it by paying for a Prius with no return on your Expedition, what would you do?  To be honest, given the recession, I would have to stick with the Expedition despite the moral obligation to have never bought the thing in the first place.  So, we can expect a good deal of talk, many promises and then a big lull while everyone figures out how to make it work.  Once we get over the “huh?” stage, it’ll roll.  I don’t think anyone wants to see the planet fail.  Even world domination-type warlords have to draw the line when the risk is having no one to conquer.

To delve deeper into what’s making the earth heat up, check out this Google Earth site.

Source: RenewableEnergyWorld.com, AP, and Examiner.com

Photo Credit: Legal Planet & Pruned

Posted on December 16th in Solar Politics by Craig.